BinaryStreaks

Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?

Updated 7d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Culture · market-implied 0.3%

PolymarketVolume ~64,431.563← All markets

Recent price

0.3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Kardashian receives a passing score on the California Bar Exam by May 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of all California State Bar Exams within this market's timeframe are not known by the specified end date, this market may remain open until May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, after which, if results remain unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the California State Bar Association, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Active signals

Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+2.6 pts

Moderate edge

Market-implied

0.3%

Model estimate

2.9%

YES

0.3%

NO

99.8%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.1 pts · Δ24h -3.1 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 0.3%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 2.9%, indicating a possible +2.6 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.1 pts · Δ24h -3.1 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Culture →

Related markets

Execution

YES

No live book

NO

No live book