Politics · market-implied 24.6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Extradited to the United States” means Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody pursuant to an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If Rocha Moya otherwise enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date, this will also qualify. An announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to will not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Rubén Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, the United States government, and relevant courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-0.6 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
24.6%
Model estimate
76.0%
YES
24.6%
NO
75.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.9 pts · Δ24h -11.6 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
24.6%
NO
75.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.030 vs 0.031 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 24.6%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 24.0%, indicating a possible -0.6 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.9 pts · Δ24h -11.6 pts (same direction)
YES
NO