Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
World · market-implied 8.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Acting President Delcy Rodríguez ceases to be leader of Venezuela for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Delcy Rodríguez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Delcy Rodríguez and the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+10.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
8.5%
Model estimate
18.5%
YES
8.5%
NO
91.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.0 pts · Δ24h -4.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
8.5%
NO
91.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 vs 0.020 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 8.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 18.5%, indicating a possible +10.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.0 pts · Δ24h -4.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Execution
YES
NO