Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
Culture · market-implied 5.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 1 12:00 PM ET to May 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence Mid-highEdge
+11.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
5.5%
Model estimate
16.5%
YES
5.5%
NO
94.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +4.0 pts · 4.6× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
5.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
5.5%
NO
94.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -5.0 pts · Δ24h -5.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
5.5%
NO
94.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 vs 0.015 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 5.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 16.5%, indicating a possible +11.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +4.0 pts · 4.6× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Execution
YES
NO