Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Science · market-implied 56.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+1.2 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
56.5%
Model estimate
57.7%
YES
56.5%
NO
43.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +1.5 pts · 3.0× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-4.5 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
56.5%
Model estimate
48.0%
YES
56.5%
NO
43.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.5 pts · Δ24h -4.5 pts (same direction)
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 56.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 57.7%, indicating a possible +1.2 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +1.5 pts · 3.0× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
No live book
NO
No live book