Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Crypto · market-implied 4.9%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence HighEdge
+11.7 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
4.9%
Model estimate
16.6%
YES
4.9%
NO
95.1%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -3.3 pts · 5.6× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+10.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
4.9%
Model estimate
14.9%
YES
4.9%
NO
95.1%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.3 pts · Δ24h -3.4 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
4.9%
NO
95.1%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.012 vs 0.008 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 4.9%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 16.6%, indicating a possible +11.7 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -3.3 pts · 5.6× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Execution
YES
NO