Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Culture · market-implied 87.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 5 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence HighEdge
-2.5 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
87.5%
Model estimate
15.0%
YES
87.5%
NO
12.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +3.0 pts · 6.0× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-1.0 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
87.5%
Model estimate
13.5%
YES
87.5%
NO
12.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.0 pts · Δ24h +3.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
87.5%
NO
12.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 vs 0.030 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 87.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 85.0%, indicating a possible -2.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +3.0 pts · 6.0× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO