BinaryStreaks

Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31?

Updated 2h ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Politics · market-implied 0.7%

PolymarketVolume ~34,640.111← All markets

Recent price

0.7%

On February 12, 2026, Rep. Ro Khanna posted a document on X that displays an email with the subject line "I beat Bush" addressed to Jeffrey Epstein, calling for the sender’s identity to be unredacted. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/reprokhanna/status/2022046192478327156?s=46. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the document is publicly unredacted in a manner that clearly and definitively reveals the sender’s email account or identity by the listed date (ET). Official statements regarding the sender’s identity, or any other form of confirmation that does not involve the public unredaction of the specified document, including access to the unredacted document limited to House members, congressional committees, or other restricted parties, will not alone qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Active signals

Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31?
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+1.3 pts

Early edge

Market-implied

0.7%

Model estimate

2.0%

YES

0.7%

NO

99.3%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.1 pts · Δ24h -4.1 pts (same direction)

Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31?
Polymarket

Low Liquidity Warning

Confidence Mid-high

YES

0.7%

NO

99.3%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Spread 0.153 · wide

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 0.7%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 2.0%, indicating a possible +1.3 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.1 pts · Δ24h -4.1 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Politics →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
3¢
Best ask (buy)
7¢
Spread
5¢
Midpoint
5¢

NO

No live book