Fed rate hike in 2026?
Fed · market-implied 31.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
31.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
31.5%
NO
68.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.0 pts · Δ24h +13.0 pts (same direction)
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-10.5 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
31.5%
Model estimate
79.0%
YES
31.5%
NO
68.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +5.0 pts · 3.0× typical volatility
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
31.5%
NO
68.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 31.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 31.5%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.0 pts · Δ24h +13.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related markets
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
Execution
YES
NO