5kt meteor strike in 2026?
Science · market-implied 32.0%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-1.3 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
32.0%
Model estimate
69.3%
YES
32.0%
NO
68.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -5.5 pts · 3.1× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-3.0 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
32.0%
Model estimate
71.0%
YES
32.0%
NO
68.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -5.5 pts · Δ24h -5.5 pts (same direction)
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 32.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 30.8%, indicating a possible -1.3 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -5.5 pts · 3.1× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO