Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Culture · market-implied 31.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+5.5 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
31.5%
Model estimate
37.0%
YES
31.5%
NO
68.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +7.5 pts · Δ24h +7.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence Mid-lowYES
31.5%
NO
68.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.090 · wide
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 31.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 37.0%, indicating a possible +5.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +7.5 pts · Δ24h +7.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Execution
YES
NO