Culture · market-implied 33.5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence LowYES
33.5%
NO
66.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.400 vs 0.160 · wide
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
33.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
33.5%
NO
66.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -11.0 pts · Δ24h -5.5 pts (same direction)
This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.400 vs 0.160 · wide
YES
NO