US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

Updated 7d ago

Politics · market-implied 56.5%

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56.5%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China. This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. If there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50. If the qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and Trump's qualifying visit to China occur on the same calendar date, this market will resolve based on which event occurred earlier in ET time. 1. Trump visits China For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the People's Republic of China. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 2. US x Iran ceasefire For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. If the agreement is officially reached before Trump visits China, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether or when the ceasefire officially takes effect. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. The primary resolution source for whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement has been reached will be official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.