Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?
Crypto · market-implied 47.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
47.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
47.5%
NO
52.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -16.0 pts · Δ24h -16.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
47.5%
NO
52.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.020 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 47.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 47.5%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -16.0 pts · Δ24h -16.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO