BinaryStreaks

Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

Updated 2h ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Politics · market-implied 45.5%

PolymarketVolume ~32,480.362← All markets

Recent price

45.5%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Active signals

Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Polymarket

Market Overreaction

Confidence Mid
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+1.3 pts

Early edge

Market-implied

45.5%

Model estimate

46.8%

YES

45.5%

NO

54.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: 1h move -3.5 pts · 3.4× typical volatility

Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: NO sideModel leaning NO

Edge

-0.5 pts

Early edge

Market-implied

45.5%

Model estimate

55.0%

YES

45.5%

NO

54.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.5 pts · Δ24h -3.5 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 45.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 46.8%, indicating a possible +1.3 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: 1h move -3.5 pts · 3.4× typical volatility

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Politics →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
44¢
Best ask (buy)
47¢
Spread
3¢
Midpoint
45¢
Depth (top level)
bid 30 · ask 45.19

NO

Best bid (sell)
53¢
Best ask (buy)
56¢
Spread
3¢
Midpoint
55¢
Depth (top level)
bid 45.19 · ask 30