Politics · market-implied 82.0%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
82.0%
Model estimate
-
YES
82.0%
NO
18.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +19.5 pts · Δ24h +19.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
82.0%
NO
18.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.020 vs 0.025 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 82.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 82.0%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +19.5 pts · Δ24h +19.5 pts (same direction)
YES
NO