Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?
Geopolitics · market-implied 0.8%
Recent price
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 0.8%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 8.1%, indicating a possible +7.3 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.5 pts · Δ24h +3.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
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- Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
Execution
YES
NO