BinaryStreaks

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Updated 2 min ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Science · market-implied 12.5%

PolymarketVolume ~215,318.503← All markets

Recent price

12.5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Active signals

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: NO sideModel leaning NO

Edge

-1.5 pts

Early edge

Market-implied

12.5%

Model estimate

89.0%

YES

12.5%

NO

87.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -9.0 pts · Δ24h -9.0 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 12.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 11.0%, indicating a possible -1.5 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -9.0 pts · Δ24h -9.0 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Science →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
12¢
Best ask (buy)
13¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
13¢
Depth (top level)
bid 91.21 · ask 118

NO

Best bid (sell)
87¢
Best ask (buy)
88¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
88¢
Depth (top level)
bid 118 · ask 91.21