Ben Pasternak jailed?
Crypto · market-implied 12.7%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ben Pasternak serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
-7.6 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
12.7%
Model estimate
94.8%
YES
12.7%
NO
87.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -12.3 pts · Δ24h -12.3 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence Mid-lowYES
12.7%
NO
87.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.064 vs 0.058 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 12.7%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 5.1%, indicating a possible -7.6 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -12.3 pts · Δ24h -12.3 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Execution
YES
NO