Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026
Crypto · market-implied 19.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pump.fun launches a token and performs an airdrop by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Pump.fun, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
+13.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
19.5%
Model estimate
32.5%
YES
19.5%
NO
80.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +12.5 pts · Δ24h +12.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence LowYES
19.5%
NO
80.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.300 vs 0.110 · wide
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 19.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 32.5%, indicating a possible +13.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +12.5 pts · Δ24h +12.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Execution
YES
NO