Elections · market-implied 1.6%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Slovenian government formed after the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following a successful confirmation vote in the Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor), with ministers sworn in under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without signing the coalition agreement and holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Slovenia.
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence Mid-highYES
1.6%
NO
98.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.186 vs 0.045 · wide
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+3.6 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
1.6%
Model estimate
5.2%
YES
1.6%
NO
98.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.3 pts · Δ24h +3.3 pts (same direction)
This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.186 vs 0.045 · wide
YES
NO