BinaryStreaks

LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Updated 3d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Sports · market-implied 30.5%

PolymarketVolume ~150,190.093← All markets

Recent price

30.5%

This market refers to the LoL match between Ultra Prime and LGD Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for April 26 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ultra Prime" if Ultra Prime win the match against LGD Gaming. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win the match against Ultra Prime. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Active signals

LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low

Edge

0.0 pts

Market-implied

30.5%

Model estimate

-

YES

30.5%

NO

69.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -6.0 pts · Δ24h -6.0 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 30.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 30.5%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -6.0 pts · Δ24h -6.0 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Sports →

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Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
30¢
Best ask (buy)
31¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
31¢
Depth (top level)
bid 26,201.58 · ask 904

NO

Best bid (sell)
69¢
Best ask (buy)
70¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
70¢
Depth (top level)
bid 904 · ask 26,201.58