BinaryStreaks

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Updated 2h ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Sports · market-implied 43.5%

Above estimatePolymarketVolume ~1,586,266.746← All markets

Recent price

43.5%

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Active signals

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
Polymarket
Above estimate

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: NO sideModel leaning NO

Edge

-25.0 pts

Strong edge

Market-implied

43.5%

Model estimate

81.5%

YES

43.5%

NO

56.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -5.5 pts · Δ24h -5.5 pts (same direction)

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
Polymarket

Low Liquidity Warning

Confidence Mid

YES

43.5%

NO

56.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Spread 0.020 vs 0.015 · thin top-book

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 43.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 18.5%, indicating a possible -25.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -5.5 pts · Δ24h -5.5 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
  • Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →More in Sports →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
43¢
Best ask (buy)
44¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
44¢
Depth (top level)
bid 2,031.19 · ask 23,902.37

NO

Best bid (sell)
56¢
Best ask (buy)
57¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
56¢
Depth (top level)
bid 23,902.37 · ask 2,031.19