BinaryStreaks

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 29?

Updated 1d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Crypto · market-implied 0.1%

PolymarketVolume ~399,796.725← All markets

Recent price

0.1%

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Mar 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Mar 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Mar 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Mar 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Active signals

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 29?
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Mid-high
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+1.9 pts

Early edge

Market-implied

0.1%

Model estimate

2.0%

YES

0.1%

NO

100.0%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -40.5 pts · Δ24h -49.5 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 0.1%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 2.0%, indicating a possible +1.9 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -40.5 pts · Δ24h -49.5 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Crypto →

Related markets

Execution

YES

No live book

NO

No live book