Politics · market-implied 99.8%
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-2.5 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
99.8%
Model estimate
2.7%
YES
99.8%
NO
0.2%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +5.3 pts · Δ24h +6.8 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
99.8%
NO
0.2%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.021 vs 0.010 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 99.8%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 97.3%, indicating a possible -2.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +5.3 pts · Δ24h +6.8 pts (same direction)
YES
NO