Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
World · market-implied 42.0%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-8.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
42.0%
Model estimate
66.0%
YES
42.0%
NO
58.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -5.5 pts · Δ24h -9.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence Mid-highYES
42.0%
NO
58.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.080 · wide
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 42.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 34.0%, indicating a possible -8.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -5.5 pts · Δ24h -9.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO