Megaquake by June 30?
Weather · market-implied 12.5%
Recent price
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+2.0 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
12.5%
Model estimate
14.5%
YES
12.5%
NO
87.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -5.0 pts · Δ24h -5.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
12.5%
NO
87.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.020 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 12.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 14.5%, indicating a possible +2.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -5.0 pts · Δ24h -5.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related markets
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- Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
- Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
- Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Execution
YES
NO