Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
World · market-implied 98.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-10.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
98.5%
Model estimate
11.5%
YES
98.5%
NO
1.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -3.0 pts · 3.5× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-5.0 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
98.5%
Model estimate
6.5%
YES
98.5%
NO
1.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.5 pts · Δ24h +3.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
98.5%
NO
1.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.007 vs 0.006 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 98.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 88.5%, indicating a possible -10.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -3.0 pts · 3.5× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO