Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
World · market-implied 7.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-2.0 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
7.5%
Model estimate
94.5%
YES
7.5%
NO
92.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.0 pts · Δ24h -3.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
7.5%
NO
92.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 7.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 5.5%, indicating a possible -2.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.0 pts · Δ24h -3.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related links
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO