OPEC · market-implied 1.6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sheikh Dr. Sultan bin Muhammad Al Qasimi is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+0.6 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
1.6%
Model estimate
2.3%
YES
1.6%
NO
98.4%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.3 pts · Δ24h -3.3 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
1.6%
NO
98.4%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.002 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 1.6%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 2.3%, indicating a possible +0.6 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.3 pts · Δ24h -3.3 pts (same direction)
YES
NO