BinaryStreaks

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?

Updated just now

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Finance · market-implied 35.5%

Below estimatePolymarketVolume ~55,912.144← All markets

Recent price

35.5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Active signals

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
Polymarket
Below estimate

Trend Continuation

Confidence Mid-low
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+4.0 pts

Moderate edge

Market-implied

35.5%

Model estimate

39.5%

YES

35.5%

NO

64.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +5.0 pts · Δ24h +14.0 pts (same direction)

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
Polymarket
Above estimate

Market Overreaction

Confidence Mid
Opportunity: NO sideModel leaning NO

Edge

-3.5 pts

Moderate edge

Market-implied

35.5%

Model estimate

68.0%

YES

35.5%

NO

64.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: 1h move +9.0 pts · 3.3× typical volatility

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
Polymarket

Low Liquidity Warning

Confidence Mid-high

YES

35.5%

NO

64.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Spread 0.110 vs 0.040 · wide

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 35.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 39.5%, indicating a possible +4.0 percentage point difference.

Over the last 14h, market-implied probability moved from 36.0% to 35.5% (-0.5 pts).

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +5.0 pts · Δ24h +14.0 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Finance →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
34¢
Best ask (buy)
37¢
Spread
3¢
Midpoint
36¢
Depth (top level)
bid 11.96 · ask 66.72

NO

Best bid (sell)
63¢
Best ask (buy)
66¢
Spread
3¢
Midpoint
65¢
Depth (top level)
bid 66.72 · ask 11.96