Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?
Politics · market-implied 96.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair. This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution. All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-2.7 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
96.5%
Model estimate
6.3%
YES
96.5%
NO
3.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +4.5 pts · 3.7× typical volatility
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
96.5%
NO
3.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.020 vs 0.010 · thin top-book
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-0.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
96.5%
Model estimate
4.0%
YES
96.5%
NO
3.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.5 pts · Δ24h +4.5 pts (same direction)
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 96.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 93.8%, indicating a possible -2.7 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +4.5 pts · 3.7× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
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Execution
YES
NO