Business · market-implied 21.0%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence LowYES
21.0%
NO
79.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.740 vs 0.135 · wide
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-3.5 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
21.0%
Model estimate
82.5%
YES
21.0%
NO
79.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -5.0 pts · Δ24h -5.0 pts (same direction)
This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.740 vs 0.135 · wide
YES
NO