Politics · market-implied 60.5%
A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Danish government formed after the 2026 Danish parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the monarch after the 2026 Danish parliamentary election, with ministers sworn in under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside the cabinet (e.g., through parliamentary support agreements or similar arrangements) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Denmark.
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
+2.5 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
60.5%
Model estimate
63.0%
YES
60.5%
NO
39.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +18.0 pts · Δ24h +15.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence LowYES
60.5%
NO
39.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.200 vs 0.130 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 60.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 63.0%, indicating a possible +2.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +18.0 pts · Δ24h +15.5 pts (same direction)
YES
NO