Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?
supreme leader · market-implied 8.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mojtaba Khamenei talks with Donald Trump by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between Mojtaba Khamenei and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
+16.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
8.5%
Model estimate
24.5%
YES
8.5%
NO
91.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +20.6 pts · Δ24h +20.6 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
8.5%
NO
91.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.128 vs 0.030 · wide
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 8.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 24.5%, indicating a possible +16.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +20.6 pts · Δ24h +20.6 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Execution
YES
NO