Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Gaza · market-implied 13.0%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market summary
This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.022 vs 0.018 · thin top-book
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
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Execution
YES
NO