Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?

Updated 3d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Politics · market-implied 39.0%

PolymarketVolume ~179,568.539← All markets

Recent price

39.0%

On March 18, 2026, rumors emerged that the U.S. federal government had registered the domains “aliens.gov” and "alien.gov." This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially announces or confirms that “aliens.gov” or "alien.gov" is intended for immigration-related purposes, or if the website becomes publicly accessible and its content is clearly and predominantly related to U.S. immigration or information for or about non-citizens (“aliens”), by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For announcements to qualify, they must be official. For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity. If either website becomes publicly accessible and its content is clearly and predominantly related to extraterrestrial/UFO topics or any subject not primarily related to immigration, or if any qualifying announcement or confirmation establishes that the domains are intended for such non-immigration-related purposes, this market will resolve to "No". Informal statements, placeholder pages, inactive domains, or any content that is not clearly indicative of the domains' primary purpose will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 39.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 39.0%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -7.5 pts · Δ24h -15.0 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
38¢
Best ask (buy)
40¢
Spread
Midpoint
39¢
Depth (top level)
bid 20 · ask 800.93

NO

Best bid (sell)
60¢
Best ask (buy)
62¢
Spread
Midpoint
61¢
Depth (top level)
bid 800.93 · ask 20