MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Crypto · market-implied 95.3%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MegaETH's token is greater than $1,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MegaETH doesn't launch a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-68.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
95.3%
Model estimate
72.8%
YES
95.3%
NO
4.8%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +1.5 pts · 3.0× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
95.3%
Model estimate
-
YES
95.3%
NO
4.8%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +6.8 pts · Δ24h +6.8 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
95.3%
NO
4.8%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.001 vs 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 95.3%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 27.3%, indicating a possible -68.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +1.5 pts · 3.0× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Execution
YES
NO