Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Politics · market-implied 0.8%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence Mid-highEdge
+2.6 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
0.8%
Model estimate
3.4%
YES
0.8%
NO
99.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -5.3 pts · 4.2× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+1.3 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
0.8%
Model estimate
2.0%
YES
0.8%
NO
99.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -5.3 pts · Δ24h -5.3 pts (same direction)
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 0.8%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 3.4%, indicating a possible +2.6 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -5.3 pts · 4.2× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related markets
- Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
- Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Execution
YES
NO
No live book