BinaryStreaks

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Updated 1d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Tech · market-implied 10.5%

PolymarketVolume ~405,857.933← All markets

Recent price

10.5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Active signals

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Polymarket

Market Overreaction

Confidence Mid-high
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+25.3 pts

Strong edge

Market-implied

10.5%

Model estimate

35.8%

YES

10.5%

NO

89.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: 1h move +3.5 pts · 4.6× typical volatility

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Polymarket
Below estimate

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+8.5 pts

Strong edge

Market-implied

10.5%

Model estimate

19.0%

YES

10.5%

NO

89.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.5 pts · Δ24h -3.5 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 10.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 35.8%, indicating a possible +25.3 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: 1h move +3.5 pts · 4.6× typical volatility

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
  • Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Tech →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
10¢
Best ask (buy)
11¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
11¢
Depth (top level)
bid 170 · ask 185.98

NO

Best bid (sell)
89¢
Best ask (buy)
90¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
90¢
Depth (top level)
bid 185.98 · ask 170