Politics · market-implied 0.5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+4.0 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
0.5%
Model estimate
4.5%
YES
0.5%
NO
99.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.0 pts · Δ24h -3.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
0.5%
NO
99.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.007 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 0.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 4.5%, indicating a possible +4.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.0 pts · Δ24h -3.0 pts (same direction)
YES
NO