BinaryStreaks

Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?

Updated 3h ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

World · market-implied 66.6%

Above estimatePolymarketVolume ~31,844.563← All markets

Recent price

66.6%

This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Active signals

Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?
Polymarket
Above estimate

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: NO sideModel leaning NO

Edge

-34.5 pts

Strong edge

Market-implied

66.6%

Model estimate

67.9%

YES

66.6%

NO

33.4%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -7.5 pts · Δ24h -4.2 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 66.6%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 32.1%, indicating a possible -34.5 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -7.5 pts · Δ24h -4.2 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
  • Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in World →

Related markets

Execution

YES

No live book

NO

No live book