Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Politics · market-implied 4.1%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+3.6 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
4.1%
Model estimate
7.7%
YES
4.1%
NO
95.9%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +1.8 pts · 3.7× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+2.8 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
4.1%
Model estimate
6.9%
YES
4.1%
NO
95.9%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -5.5 pts · Δ24h -5.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
4.1%
NO
95.9%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.011 vs 0.012 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 4.1%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 7.7%, indicating a possible +3.6 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +1.8 pts · 3.7× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related markets
- Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Execution
YES
NO