BinaryStreaks

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?

Updated 6h ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Politics · market-implied 46.0%

PolymarketVolume ~21,080.844← All markets

Recent price

46.0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

Active signals

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low

Edge

0.0 pts

Market-implied

46.0%

Model estimate

-

YES

46.0%

NO

54.0%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +9.0 pts · Δ24h +9.0 pts (same direction)

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?
Polymarket

Low Liquidity Warning

Confidence Mid

YES

46.0%

NO

54.0%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Spread 0.030 vs 0.020 · thin top-book

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 46.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 46.0%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +9.0 pts · Δ24h +9.0 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Politics →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
36¢
Best ask (buy)
38¢
Spread
2¢
Midpoint
37¢
Depth (top level)
bid 489.92 · ask 160

NO

Best bid (sell)
62¢
Best ask (buy)
64¢
Spread
2¢
Midpoint
63¢
Depth (top level)
bid 160 · ask 489.92