BinaryStreaks

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Updated 3d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Sports · market-implied 46.5%

PolymarketVolume ~152,437.662← All markets

Recent price

46.5%

This market refers to the LoL match between ThunderTalk Gaming and LGD Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for April 30 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against LGD Gaming. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Active signals

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low

Edge

0.0 pts

Market-implied

46.5%

Model estimate

-

YES

46.5%

NO

53.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.0 pts · Δ24h -4.0 pts (same direction)

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
Polymarket

Low Liquidity Warning

Confidence Mid

YES

46.5%

NO

53.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Spread 0.040 vs 0.045 · thin top-book

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 46.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 46.5%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.0 pts · Δ24h -4.0 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Sports →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
46¢
Best ask (buy)
47¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
47¢
Depth (top level)
bid 2,295.23 · ask 82,380.93

NO

Best bid (sell)
53¢
Best ask (buy)
54¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
54¢
Depth (top level)
bid 82,380.93 · ask 2,295.23