Politics · market-implied 98.5%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles). This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
98.5%
NO
1.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.038 vs 0.023 · thin top-book
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-3.4 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
98.5%
Model estimate
4.9%
YES
98.5%
NO
1.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.3 pts · Δ24h +3.3 pts (same direction)
This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.038 vs 0.023 · thin top-book
YES
NO