Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
Crypto · market-implied 39.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+2.0 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
39.5%
Model estimate
41.5%
YES
39.5%
NO
60.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -9.0 pts · Δ24h -9.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
39.5%
NO
60.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.020 vs 0.015 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 39.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 41.5%, indicating a possible +2.0 percentage point difference.
Over the last 11h, market-implied probability moved from 31.5% to 39.5% (+8.0 pts).
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -9.0 pts · Δ24h -9.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related links
Execution
YES
NO