BinaryStreaks

Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?

Updated 8d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Tech · market-implied 0.8%

PolymarketVolume ~56,416.027← All markets

Recent price

0.8%

Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20). This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees. An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed. Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify. Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment. Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Active signals

No active signals for this market.

Market summary

This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

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Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
1¢
Best ask (buy)
1¢
Spread
0¢
Midpoint
1¢
Depth (top level)
bid 25 · ask 214.84

NO

Best bid (sell)
99¢
Best ask (buy)
99¢
Spread
0¢
Midpoint
99¢
Depth (top level)
bid 214.84 · ask 25