Politics · market-implied 26.5%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+3.5 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
26.5%
Model estimate
30.0%
YES
26.5%
NO
73.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -8.5 pts · Δ24h -8.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence Mid-highYES
26.5%
NO
73.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.060 · wide
YES
NO