Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026
Business · market-implied 12.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+5.0 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
12.5%
Model estimate
17.5%
YES
12.5%
NO
87.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -10.0 pts · 3.6× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
12.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
12.5%
NO
87.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -10.0 pts · Δ24h -10.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
12.5%
NO
87.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.070 vs 0.020 · wide
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 12.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 17.5%, indicating a possible +5.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -10.0 pts · 3.6× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO
No live book